Statistical Model in Excel - Bankroll Management for Sports Betting
Budget €6-12 EUR / time
I am betting on sports with high volume. For this task you need to understand the basics of sports betting which I explain below and have a strong expertise in statistical modelling.
The idea is to develop an understanding about my bankroll management – i.e. create an overview about my risk and size of drawdowns, risk of ruin and expected gains. Your analysis will be used to understand
a) Risk and size of drawdowns
b) Amount of money to be bet
I would like to understand the statistical distribution about my scenario (normal distribution?) + be able to run Monte Carlo scenarios where I can actually analyze the differing outcomes. This should be all be done in Excel.
The task:
I would like a dynamic model developed in Excel where I can adjust the following parameters:
- Average size of bets
- Average Odds
- Expected ROI
- Bankroll
- Turnover
- Expected ROC
From this dynamic model I want to understand my risk of ruin, my expected drawdowns and my potential gains.
Based on the above I would like to understand how much further betting volume I can add over time without increasing my risk to lose (X% part) of my bankroll. Another model should be created for this. A graphical illustration with charts and histograms would be useful.
Sports Betting basics:
Odds: 10
Means: For every 1 EUR bet, you get 10 back, consequently you have 9 EUR gain if you win the bet or you have lost 1 EUR if the bet was lost.
Odds of 10 means 1/10= 10% chance of winning the bet as per the bookmaker estimation (and of course 90% chance of losing the bet). Always the inverse of the odds is the probability.
Turnover: If you bet for example 10 x 10 EUR = 100 EUR is your betting turnover
ROI = Return on Investment. If you have for example an ROI of 5%, you expect to win 50 EUR for every 1000 EUR bet on average. If your betting turnover is 100 EUR, you expect to win 5 EUR.
Bankroll = The amount of money you have to bet. If = 0, you’re bankrupt.
ROC = Return on Capital. If your initial bankroll is 1000 EUR and you win 100 EUR, your ROC is 100/1000 = 10%
Drawdown = Loss from top to bottom without reaching a new high
Stake = Amount of money to be bet
Risk of ruin = Risk of losing your total bankroll
16 freelancere byder i gennemsnit €10/time for dette job
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